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Birmingham vs Blackpool — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Blackpool
Blackpool
L. Jutkiewicz 81'
11/27/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 20St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Birmingham44%
×Draw27%
Blackpool30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.39
Blackpool
1.10

Birmingham creates 26% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 52 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.25
Blackpool
0.92

allows per match

Birmingham
1.29
Blackpool
1.52

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par
Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
70%
Birmingham or Blackpool
73%
Draw or Blackpool
56%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
21%
Blackpool wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
75%
Birmingham 2+ goals
40%
Birmingham 3+ goals
16%
Blackpool 1+ goals
67%
Blackpool 2+ goals
30%
Blackpool 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
59%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 175 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.25 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Birmingham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Birmingham scores more
44%
level
27%
Blackpool scores more
30%

Birmingham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. JutkiewiczBirminghamBirmingham · F
7.3

Match Events

39'
Kristian Pedersen
66'
C. Aneke← Jérémie Bela
68'
J. Bowler← D. Mitchell
69'
Riley McGree
69'
Callum Connolly
75'
L. Jutkiewicz← T. Deeney
75'
S. Lavery← O. Dale
81'
L. Jutkiewicz↳ J. James
82'
Keshi Anderson
82'
James Husband
84'
J. Yates← G. Madine

Possession

44%Birmingham

Shots

9Birmingham

Pass accuracy

44%Birmingham

Statistics

BirminghamBlackpool
Overview
44%Possession56%
9Total Shots8
2Corners1
16Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots8
3On Target1
3Off Target6
3Blocked1
5Inside Box5
4Outside Box3
Passing
44%Possession56%
297Total Passes368
166Accurate Passes263
56%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Birmingham vs Blackpool

Birmingham beat Blackpool 1-0 in Championship on November 27, 2021.

Goals: L. Jutkiewicz (81').

Blackpool controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at St Andrew's Stadium in Birmingham.