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Birmingham vs Barnsley — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Barnsley
Barnsley
1/22/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 28St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Birmingham44%
×Draw27%
Barnsley30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.40
Barnsley
1.11

Birmingham creates 26% more chances

Season form · 167 home / 72 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.26
Barnsley
0.93

allows per match

Birmingham
1.30
Barnsley
1.54

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
70%
Birmingham or Barnsley
73%
Draw or Barnsley
56%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
21%
Barnsley wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
75%
Birmingham 2+ goals
41%
Birmingham 3+ goals
17%
Barnsley 1+ goals
67%
Barnsley 2+ goals
30%
Barnsley 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
59%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 167 matches

Barnsley away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.54 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.26 + Barnsley defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Barnsley attack 0.93 + Birmingham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Birmingham scores more
44%
level
27%
Barnsley scores more
30%

Birmingham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Birmingham vs Barnsley

Birmingham beat Barnsley 2-1 in Championship on January 22, 2022.

The match was played at St Andrew's Stadium in Birmingham.