Barnsley 1–2 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Barnsley

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Birmingham

12/7/2024

League One · Round 19Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Barnsley33%

×Draw26%

Birmingham42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnsleyExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.46

Barnsley

1.27

Birmingham

1.46

Birmingham creates 15% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 23 away

1.68

creates per match

1.61

1.30

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Barnsley

1.68

Birmingham

1.61

allows per match

Barnsley

1.30

Birmingham

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par

Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw

58%

Barnsley or Birmingham

74%

Draw or Birmingham

67%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+

14%

Birmingham wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals

72%

Barnsley 2+ goals

36%

Barnsley 3+ goals

14%

Birmingham 1+ goals

77%

Birmingham 2+ goals

43%

Birmingham 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)

44%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Birmingham away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.68 + Birmingham defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.27

Birmingham attack 1.61 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Barnsley scores more

33%

level

26%

Birmingham scores more

42%

Birmingham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff