Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Regar-TadAZ vs CSKA Pomir — Vysshaya Liga 2012

Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
FT
2 – 0
CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
4/29/2012Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 4TALCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Regar-TadAZ33%
×Draw32%
CSKA Pomir35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Regar-TadAZ
0.93
CSKA Pomir
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

creates per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.16
CSKA Pomir
1.18

allows per match

Regar-TadAZ
0.79
CSKA Pomir
0.71

finishing

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par
CSKA Pomir+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Regar-TadAZ ↓

CSKA Pomir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Regar-TadAZ or draw
65%
Regar-TadAZ or CSKA Pomir
68%
Draw or CSKA Pomir
67%

Winning margin

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
12%
CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
61%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
24%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
7%
CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
62%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
26%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
48%
CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Regar-TadAZ at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

CSKA Pomir away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.16 + CSKA Pomir defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.93

CSKA Pomir attack 1.18 + Regar-TadAZ defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Regar-TadAZ scores more
33%
level
32%
CSKA Pomir scores more
35%

CSKA Pomir at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Regar-TadAZ vs CSKA Pomir

Regar-TadAZ beat CSKA Pomir 2-0 in Vysshaya Liga on April 29, 2012.

The match was played at TALCO Arena in Tursunzoda.