Birmingham Legion II 0–0 Athens United

Birmingham Legion II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Athens United

6/10/2024

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 8Protective Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Birmingham Legion II52%

×Draw26%

Athens United21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Birmingham Legion IIExpected goals in this matchAthens United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.85

Birmingham Legion II

1.50

Athens United

0.85

Birmingham Legion II creates 76% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

0.00

1.71

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Birmingham Legion II

1.00

Athens United

0.00

allows per match

Birmingham Legion II

1.71

Athens United

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham Legion II+0.00on par

Athens United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham Legion II ↓

Athens United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Birmingham Legion II or draw

79%

Birmingham Legion II or Athens United

74%

Draw or Athens United

48%

Winning margin

Birmingham Legion II wins by 2+

27%

Athens United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Birmingham Legion II 1+ goals

78%

Birmingham Legion II 2+ goals

44%

Birmingham Legion II 3+ goals

19%

Athens United 1+ goals

57%

Athens United 2+ goals

21%

Athens United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Birmingham Legion II (draw refunded)

71%

Athens United (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham Legion II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

Athens United away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham Legion II attack 1.00 + Athens United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Athens United attack 0.00 + Birmingham Legion II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Birmingham Legion II scores more

52%

level

26%

Athens United scores more

21%

Birmingham Legion II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Birmingham Legion II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff