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Athens United vs Birmingham Legion II — USL League Two 2026

Athens United
Athens United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Birmingham Legion II
Birmingham Legion II
5/22/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 2Slaughter Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Athens United29%
×Draw24%
Birmingham Legion II46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athens United
1.25
Birmingham Legion II
1.63

Birmingham Legion II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

creates per match

Athens United
0.50
Birmingham Legion II
1.25

allows per match

Athens United
2.00
Birmingham Legion II
2.00

finishing

Athens United+0.00on par
Birmingham Legion II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athens United ↓

Birmingham Legion II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Athens United or draw
54%
Athens United or Birmingham Legion II
76%
Draw or Birmingham Legion II
71%

Winning margin

Athens United wins by 2+
12%
Birmingham Legion II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Athens United 1+ goals
71%
Athens United 2+ goals
36%
Athens United 3+ goals
13%
Birmingham Legion II 1+ goals
80%
Birmingham Legion II 2+ goals
48%
Birmingham Legion II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Athens United (draw refunded)
39%
Birmingham Legion II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athens United at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Birmingham Legion II away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athens United attack 0.50 + Birmingham Legion II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Birmingham Legion II attack 1.25 + Athens United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Athens United scores more
29%
level
24%
Birmingham Legion II scores more
46%

Birmingham Legion II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Birmingham Legion II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Athens United vs Birmingham Legion II

Athens United and Birmingham Legion II drew 1-1 in USL League Two on May 22, 2024.

The match was played at Slaughter Field in Athens, Georgia.