Bílovec 10–1 Beskyd Frenštát: Result & Stats

Bílovec

FT

10 – 1

HT: 5 – 0

Beskyd Frenštát

9/1/2024

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 5Fotbalove Hriste Bílovec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Bílovec56%

×Draw20%

Beskyd Frenštát24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BílovecExpected goals in this matchBeskyd Frenštát

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.41

Bílovec

2.26

Beskyd Frenštát

1.41

Bílovec creates 60% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 60 away

2.15

creates per match

1.23

1.59

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Bílovec

2.15

Beskyd Frenštát

1.23

allows per match

Bílovec

1.59

Beskyd Frenštát

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bílovec+0.00on par

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bílovec ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Bílovec or draw

76%

Bílovec or Beskyd Frenštát

80%

Draw or Beskyd Frenštát

44%

Winning margin

Bílovec wins by 2+

35%

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bílovec 1+ goals

89%

Bílovec 2+ goals

66%

Bílovec 3+ goals

39%

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals

76%

Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals

41%

Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bílovec (draw refunded)

71%

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bílovec at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.59 · 71 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bílovec attack 2.15 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.26

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Bílovec defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bílovec scores more

56%

level

20%

Beskyd Frenštát scores more

24%

Bílovec at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bílovec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff