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Beskyd Frenštát vs Bílovec — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bílovec
Bílovec
4/2/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 16Stadion Na Nivách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát34%
×Draw23%
Bílovec42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beskyd Frenštát
1.52
Bílovec
1.71

Bílovec creates 13% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 71 away

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.59
Bílovec
1.63

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.80
Bílovec
1.44

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par
Bílovec+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Bílovec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw
58%
Beskyd Frenštát or Bílovec
77%
Draw or Bílovec
66%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
16%
Bílovec wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
78%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
45%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
20%
Bílovec 1+ goals
82%
Bílovec 2+ goals
51%
Bílovec 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
45%
Bílovec (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Bílovec away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.44 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Bílovec defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bílovec attack 1.63 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more
34%
level
23%
Bílovec scores more
42%

Bílovec at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bílovec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beskyd Frenštát vs Bílovec

Beskyd Frenštát beat Bílovec 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Na Nivách in Frenštát pod Radhoštěm.