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BIIK Kazygurt W vs Anderlecht W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

BIIK Kazygurt W
BIIK Kazygurt W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Anderlecht W
Anderlecht W
9/25/2019UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 16th FinalsStadion Namys

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

BIIK Kazygurt W49%
×Draw22%
Anderlecht W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BIIK Kazygurt W
2.03
Anderlecht W
1.56

BIIK Kazygurt W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

creates per match

BIIK Kazygurt W
2.06
Anderlecht W
1.50

allows per match

BIIK Kazygurt W
1.63
Anderlecht W
2.00

finishing

BIIK Kazygurt W+0.00on par
Anderlecht W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BIIK Kazygurt W ↓

Anderlecht W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

BIIK Kazygurt W or draw
70%
BIIK Kazygurt W or Anderlecht W
78%
Draw or Anderlecht W
51%

Winning margin

BIIK Kazygurt W wins by 2+
28%
Anderlecht W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

BIIK Kazygurt W 1+ goals
87%
BIIK Kazygurt W 2+ goals
60%
BIIK Kazygurt W 3+ goals
33%
Anderlecht W 1+ goals
79%
Anderlecht W 2+ goals
46%
Anderlecht W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

BIIK Kazygurt W (draw refunded)
62%
Anderlecht W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BIIK Kazygurt W at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Anderlecht W away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BIIK Kazygurt W attack 2.06 + Anderlecht W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.03

Anderlecht W attack 1.50 + BIIK Kazygurt W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

BIIK Kazygurt W scores more
49%
level
22%
Anderlecht W scores more
30%

BIIK Kazygurt W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "BIIK Kazygurt W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: BIIK Kazygurt W 2–0 Anderlecht W

BIIK Kazygurt W beat Anderlecht W 2-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Namys in Shymkent.