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Anderlecht W vs BIIK Kazygurt W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Anderlecht W
Anderlecht W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
BIIK Kazygurt W
BIIK Kazygurt W
9/12/2019UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 16th FinalsLotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Anderlecht W66%
×Draw18%
BIIK Kazygurt W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht W
2.40
BIIK Kazygurt W
1.10

Anderlecht W creates 118% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Anderlecht W
3.00
BIIK Kazygurt W
1.20

allows per match

Anderlecht W
1.00
BIIK Kazygurt W
1.80

finishing

Anderlecht W+0.00on par
BIIK Kazygurt W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht W ↓

BIIK Kazygurt W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Anderlecht W or draw
84%
Anderlecht W or BIIK Kazygurt W
82%
Draw or BIIK Kazygurt W
34%

Winning margin

Anderlecht W wins by 2+
43%
BIIK Kazygurt W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Anderlecht W 1+ goals
91%
Anderlecht W 2+ goals
69%
Anderlecht W 3+ goals
42%
BIIK Kazygurt W 1+ goals
67%
BIIK Kazygurt W 2+ goals
30%
BIIK Kazygurt W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht W (draw refunded)
80%
BIIK Kazygurt W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

BIIK Kazygurt W away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht W attack 3.00 + BIIK Kazygurt W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.40

BIIK Kazygurt W attack 1.20 + Anderlecht W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Anderlecht W scores more
66%
level
18%
BIIK Kazygurt W scores more
16%

Anderlecht W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Anderlecht W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anderlecht W vs BIIK Kazygurt W

Anderlecht W and BIIK Kazygurt W drew 1-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 12, 2019.

The match was played at Lotto Park in Brussel.