Biel-Bienne 2–1 Neuchatel Xamax FC: Result & Stats

Biel-Bienne

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Neuchatel Xamax FC

8/17/2024

Schweizer Cup · 1st RoundTissot Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Biel-Bienne13%

×Draw15%

Neuchatel Xamax FC72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Biel-BienneExpected goals in this matchNeuchatel Xamax FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

3.12

Biel-Bienne

1.30

Neuchatel Xamax FC

3.12

Neuchatel Xamax FC creates 140% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.17

creates per match

3.56

2.67

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Biel-Bienne

1.17

Neuchatel Xamax FC

3.56

allows per match

Biel-Bienne

2.67

Neuchatel Xamax FC

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Biel-Bienne+0.00on par

Neuchatel Xamax FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biel-Bienne ↓

Neuchatel Xamax FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Biel-Bienne or draw

28%

Biel-Bienne or Neuchatel Xamax FC

85%

Draw or Neuchatel Xamax FC

87%

Winning margin

Biel-Bienne wins by 2+

5%

Neuchatel Xamax FC wins by 2+

53%

Team goals

Biel-Bienne 1+ goals

73%

Biel-Bienne 2+ goals

37%

Biel-Bienne 3+ goals

14%

Neuchatel Xamax FC 1+ goals

95%

Neuchatel Xamax FC 2+ goals

81%

Neuchatel Xamax FC 3+ goals

59%

Draw no bet

Biel-Bienne (draw refunded)

15%

Neuchatel Xamax FC (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biel-Bienne at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Neuchatel Xamax FC away — creates 3.56, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biel-Bienne attack 1.17 + Neuchatel Xamax FC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Neuchatel Xamax FC attack 3.56 + Biel-Bienne defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Biel-Bienne scores more

13%

level

15%

Neuchatel Xamax FC scores more

72%

Neuchatel Xamax FC at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Neuchatel Xamax FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff