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Bidco United vs AFC Leopards — FKF Premier League 2018

Bidco United
Bidco United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
12/10/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 13SportPesa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Bidco United31%
×Draw30%
AFC Leopards39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidco United
0.95
AFC Leopards
1.11

AFC Leopards creates 17% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 146 away

creates per match

Bidco United
0.86
AFC Leopards
1.17

allows per match

Bidco United
1.06
AFC Leopards
1.03

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par
AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

AFC Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw
61%
Bidco United or AFC Leopards
70%
Draw or AFC Leopards
69%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+
11%
AFC Leopards wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals
61%
Bidco United 2+ goals
25%
Bidco United 3+ goals
7%
AFC Leopards 1+ goals
67%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
30%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)
44%
AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.06 · 101 matches

AFC Leopards away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 0.86 + AFC Leopards defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

AFC Leopards attack 1.17 + Bidco United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bidco United scores more
31%
level
30%
AFC Leopards scores more
39%

AFC Leopards at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Bidco United 2–1 AFC Leopards

Bidco United beat AFC Leopards 2-1 in FKF Premier League on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at SportPesa Arena in Murang'a.