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AFC Leopards vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2018

AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Bidco United
Bidco United
4/26/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 28Dandora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

AFC Leopards41%
×Draw31%
Bidco United28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Leopards
1.09
Bidco United
0.85

AFC Leopards creates 28% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 101 away

creates per match

AFC Leopards
1.15
Bidco United
0.85

allows per match

AFC Leopards
0.86
Bidco United
1.04

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw
72%
AFC Leopards or Bidco United
69%
Draw or Bidco United
59%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+
17%
Bidco United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals
66%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
30%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
10%
Bidco United 1+ goals
57%
Bidco United 2+ goals
21%
Bidco United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
59%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 145 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 1.15 + Bidco United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Bidco United attack 0.85 + AFC Leopards defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AFC Leopards scores more
41%
level
31%
Bidco United scores more
28%

AFC Leopards at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Leopards vs Bidco United

AFC Leopards beat Bidco United 3-1 in FKF Premier League on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Dandora Stadium in Nairobi.