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AFC Leopards vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2025

AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bidco United
Bidco United
V. Otieno 48'
A. Ochieng 89'
V. Kinyili 83'
5/31/2026FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AFC Leopards46%
×Draw31%
Bidco United23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Leopards
1.18
Bidco United
0.75

AFC Leopards creates 57% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 36 away

creates per match

AFC Leopards
1.29
Bidco United
0.69

allows per match

AFC Leopards
0.82
Bidco United
1.06

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw
77%
AFC Leopards or Bidco United
69%
Draw or Bidco United
54%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+
20%
Bidco United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals
69%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
33%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
12%
Bidco United 1+ goals
53%
Bidco United 2+ goals
17%
Bidco United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
66%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 1.29 + Bidco United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bidco United attack 0.69 + AFC Leopards defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AFC Leopards scores more
46%
level
31%
Bidco United scores more
23%

AFC Leopards at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
V. Otieno
83'
V. Kinyili
89'
A. Ochieng

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: AFC Leopards 1–2 Bidco United

Bidco United beat AFC Leopards 2-1 in FKF Premier League on May 31, 2026.

Goals: V. Otieno (48'), V. Kinyili (83'), A. Ochieng (89').