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Bicskei vs III. Kerületi TUE — NB III - Northwest 2019

Bicskei
Bicskei
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
III. Kerületi TUE
III. Kerületi TUE
3/17/2024NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 20Bicskei Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bicskei42%
×Draw25%
III. Kerületi TUE33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bicskei
1.55
III. Kerületi TUE
1.35

Bicskei creates 15% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bicskei
1.93
III. Kerületi TUE
1.67

allows per match

Bicskei
1.04
III. Kerületi TUE
1.17

finishing

Bicskei+0.00on par
III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bicskei ↓

III. Kerületi TUE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bicskei or draw
67%
Bicskei or III. Kerületi TUE
75%
Draw or III. Kerületi TUE
58%

Winning margin

Bicskei wins by 2+
21%
III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bicskei 1+ goals
79%
Bicskei 2+ goals
46%
Bicskei 3+ goals
20%
III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals
74%
III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals
39%
III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bicskei (draw refunded)
56%
III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bicskei at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

III. Kerületi TUE away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bicskei attack 1.93 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.55

III. Kerületi TUE attack 1.67 + Bicskei defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bicskei scores more
42%
level
25%
III. Kerületi TUE scores more
33%

Bicskei at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bicskei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Bicskei 0–0 III. Kerületi TUE

Bicskei and III. Kerületi TUE drew 0-0 in NB III - Northwest on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Bicskei Sportpálya in Bicske.