Bicskei 3–2 III. Kerületi TUE: Result & Stats

Bicskei

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

III. Kerületi TUE

4/9/2023

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 30Bicskei Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Bicskei30%

×Draw26%

III. Kerületi TUE44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BicskeiExpected goals in this matchIII. Kerületi TUE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.46

Bicskei

1.16

III. Kerületi TUE

1.46

III. Kerületi TUE creates 26% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 48 away

1.44

creates per match

2.02

0.89

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Bicskei

1.44

III. Kerületi TUE

2.02

allows per match

Bicskei

0.89

III. Kerületi TUE

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bicskei+0.00on par

III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bicskei ↓

III. Kerületi TUE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bicskei or draw

56%

Bicskei or III. Kerületi TUE

74%

Draw or III. Kerületi TUE

70%

Winning margin

Bicskei wins by 2+

12%

III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Bicskei 1+ goals

69%

Bicskei 2+ goals

32%

Bicskei 3+ goals

11%

III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals

77%

III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals

43%

III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bicskei (draw refunded)

41%

III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bicskei at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.89 · 66 matches

III. Kerületi TUE away — creates 2.02, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bicskei attack 1.44 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.16

III. Kerületi TUE attack 2.02 + Bicskei defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bicskei scores more

30%

level

26%

III. Kerületi TUE scores more

44%

III. Kerületi TUE at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "III. Kerületi TUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff