Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bibiani Gold Stars vs Asante Kotoko — Cup 2022

Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
FT
0 – 1
Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotokoadvanced
1/7/2024CupCup · Round of 32Bibiani Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bibiani Gold Stars24%
×Draw27%
Asante Kotoko49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bibiani Gold Stars
0.92
Asante Kotoko
1.42

Asante Kotoko creates 54% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.00
Asante Kotoko
1.17

allows per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.67
Asante Kotoko
0.83

finishing

Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par
Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bibiani Gold Stars ↓

Asante Kotoko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bibiani Gold Stars or draw
51%
Bibiani Gold Stars or Asante Kotoko
73%
Draw or Asante Kotoko
76%

Winning margin

Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
8%
Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
60%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
23%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
7%
Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
76%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
41%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
33%
Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bibiani Gold Stars at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 1.00 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Asante Kotoko attack 1.17 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
24%
level
27%
Asante Kotoko scores more
49%

Asante Kotoko at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bibiani Gold Stars vs Asante Kotoko

Asante Kotoko beat Bibiani Gold Stars 1-0 in Cup on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Bibiani Park in Bibiani.