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Asante Kotoko vs Bibiani Gold Stars — Premier League 2019

Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
3/1/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Asante Kotoko56%
×Draw26%
Bibiani Gold Stars17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asante Kotoko
1.48
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.68

Asante Kotoko creates 118% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 84 away

creates per match

Asante Kotoko
1.47
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.70

allows per match

Asante Kotoko
0.65
Bibiani Gold Stars
1.50

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par
Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Bibiani Gold Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw
83%
Asante Kotoko or Bibiani Gold Stars
74%
Draw or Bibiani Gold Stars
44%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
29%
Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
77%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
43%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
19%
Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
49%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
15%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
77%
Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.65 · 108 matches

Bibiani Gold Stars away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.47 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 0.70 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more
56%
level
26%
Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
17%

Asante Kotoko at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asante Kotoko vs Bibiani Gold Stars

Asante Kotoko beat Bibiani Gold Stars 1-0 in Premier League on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.