Biashara United 1–1 Azam: Result & Stats

Biashara United

FT

1 – 1

Azam

11/30/2020

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 12Karume Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Biashara United32%

×Draw32%

Azam36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Biashara UnitedExpected goals in this matchAzam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

0.97

Biashara United

0.90

Azam

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 111 away

1.00

creates per match

1.29

0.65

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Biashara United

1.00

Azam

1.29

allows per match

Biashara United

0.65

Azam

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Biashara United+0.00on par

Azam+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biashara United ↓

Azam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Biashara United or draw

64%

Biashara United or Azam

68%

Draw or Azam

68%

Winning margin

Biashara United wins by 2+

11%

Azam wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Biashara United 1+ goals

59%

Biashara United 2+ goals

23%

Biashara United 3+ goals

6%

Azam 1+ goals

62%

Azam 2+ goals

25%

Azam 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Biashara United (draw refunded)

47%

Azam (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biashara United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.65 · 51 matches

Azam away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.80 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biashara United attack 1.00 + Azam defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Azam attack 1.29 + Biashara United defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Biashara United scores more

32%

level

32%

Azam scores more

36%

Azam at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff