Azam 2–0 Biashara United: Result & Stats

Azam

FT

2 – 0

Biashara United

5/20/2021

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 27Chamazi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Azam62%

×Draw25%

Biashara United14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AzamExpected goals in this matchBiashara United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.59

Azam

1.59

Biashara United

0.59

Azam creates 169% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 51 away

1.98

creates per match

0.57

0.61

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Azam

1.98

Biashara United

0.57

allows per match

Azam

0.61

Biashara United

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azam+0.00on par

Biashara United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azam ↓

Biashara United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Azam or draw

86%

Azam or Biashara United

75%

Draw or Biashara United

38%

Winning margin

Azam wins by 2+

34%

Biashara United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Azam 1+ goals

80%

Azam 2+ goals

47%

Azam 3+ goals

21%

Biashara United 1+ goals

45%

Biashara United 2+ goals

12%

Biashara United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Azam (draw refunded)

82%

Biashara United (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azam at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

Biashara United away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azam attack 1.98 + Biashara United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.59

Biashara United attack 0.57 + Azam defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Azam scores more

62%

level

25%

Biashara United scores more

14%

Azam at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff