Bezana 1–1 Barreda: Result & Stats

Bezana

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Barreda

9/21/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Campo De Fútbol Municipal De Bezana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Bezana51%

×Draw25%

Barreda25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BezanaExpected goals in this matchBarreda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.06

Bezana

1.63

Barreda

1.06

Bezana creates 54% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 61 away

1.35

creates per match

1.00

1.13

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Bezana

1.35

Barreda

1.00

allows per match

Bezana

1.13

Barreda

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bezana+0.00on par

Barreda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bezana ↓

Barreda →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bezana or draw

75%

Bezana or Barreda

75%

Draw or Barreda

49%

Winning margin

Bezana wins by 2+

27%

Barreda wins by 2+

Team goals

Bezana 1+ goals

80%

Bezana 2+ goals

48%

Bezana 3+ goals

22%

Barreda 1+ goals

65%

Barreda 2+ goals

29%

Barreda 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Bezana (draw refunded)

67%

Barreda (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bezana at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

Barreda away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bezana attack 1.35 + Barreda defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.63

Barreda attack 1.00 + Bezana defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bezana scores more

51%

level

25%

Barreda scores more

25%

Bezana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bezana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff