Barreda 1–1 Bezana: Result & Stats

Barreda

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bezana

5/8/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Solvay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Barreda38%

×Draw26%

Bezana35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarredaExpected goals in this matchBezana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.27

Barreda

1.33

Bezana

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 81 away

1.33

creates per match

1.23

1.30

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Barreda

1.33

Bezana

1.23

allows per match

Barreda

1.30

Bezana

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barreda+0.00on par

Bezana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barreda ↓

Bezana →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Barreda or draw

65%

Barreda or Bezana

74%

Draw or Bezana

62%

Winning margin

Barreda wins by 2+

17%

Bezana wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Barreda 1+ goals

74%

Barreda 2+ goals

38%

Barreda 3+ goals

15%

Bezana 1+ goals

72%

Bezana 2+ goals

36%

Bezana 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Barreda (draw refunded)

52%

Bezana (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barreda at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Bezana away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barreda attack 1.33 + Bezana defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bezana attack 1.23 + Barreda defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Barreda scores more

38%

level

26%

Bezana scores more

35%

Barreda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Barreda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Barreda 1–1 Bezana

Barreda and Bezana drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Solvay in Torrelavega.

Barreda vs Bezana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Barreda 1–1 Bezana