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Beti Gazte vs Amurrio Club — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Beti Gazte
Beti Gazte
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Amurrio Club
Amurrio Club
2/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Campo de fútbol de Mastegi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Beti Gazte35%
×Draw28%
Amurrio Club36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beti Gazte
1.14
Amurrio Club
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Beti Gazte
0.95
Amurrio Club
0.84

allows per match

Beti Gazte
1.47
Amurrio Club
1.32

finishing

Beti Gazte+0.00on par
Amurrio Club+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Gazte ↓

Amurrio Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Beti Gazte or draw
64%
Beti Gazte or Amurrio Club
72%
Draw or Amurrio Club
65%

Winning margin

Beti Gazte wins by 2+
14%
Amurrio Club wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Beti Gazte 1+ goals
68%
Beti Gazte 2+ goals
32%
Beti Gazte 3+ goals
11%
Amurrio Club 1+ goals
69%
Amurrio Club 2+ goals
32%
Amurrio Club 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Beti Gazte (draw refunded)
49%
Amurrio Club (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beti Gazte at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Amurrio Club away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beti Gazte attack 0.95 + Amurrio Club defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Amurrio Club attack 0.84 + Beti Gazte defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Beti Gazte scores more
35%
level
28%
Amurrio Club scores more
36%

Amurrio Club at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Amurrio Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Beti Gazte 0 – 1 Amurrio Club

Amurrio Club beat Beti Gazte 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Mastegi in Lesaka.