Amurrio Club 4–0 Beti Gazte: Result & Stats

Amurrio Club

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Beti Gazte

10/16/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Estadio Basarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Amurrio Club61%

×Draw21%

Beti Gazte18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Amurrio ClubExpected goals in this matchBeti Gazte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.95

Amurrio Club

1.98

Beti Gazte

0.95

Amurrio Club creates 108% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.21

creates per match

0.84

1.05

allows per match

2.74

creates per match

Amurrio Club

1.21

Beti Gazte

0.84

allows per match

Amurrio Club

1.05

Beti Gazte

2.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amurrio Club+0.00on par

Beti Gazte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amurrio Club ↓

Beti Gazte →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Amurrio Club or draw

82%

Amurrio Club or Beti Gazte

79%

Draw or Beti Gazte

39%

Winning margin

Amurrio Club wins by 2+

37%

Beti Gazte wins by 2+

Team goals

Amurrio Club 1+ goals

86%

Amurrio Club 2+ goals

59%

Amurrio Club 3+ goals

31%

Beti Gazte 1+ goals

61%

Beti Gazte 2+ goals

25%

Beti Gazte 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Amurrio Club (draw refunded)

78%

Beti Gazte (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Amurrio Club at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Beti Gazte away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Amurrio Club attack 1.21 + Beti Gazte defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 1.98

Beti Gazte attack 0.84 + Amurrio Club defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Amurrio Club scores more

61%

level

21%

Beti Gazte scores more

18%

Amurrio Club at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Amurrio Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff