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Beşiktaş vs Ankaragücü — League #203 2026

Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ankaragücü
Ankaragücü
J. Muleka 67'
E. Muçi 18'
4/19/2024League #203League #203 · Round 33Tüpraş Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beşiktaş54%
×Draw24%
Ankaragücü22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beşiktaş
1.76
Ankaragücü
1.03

Beşiktaş creates 71% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

creates per match

Beşiktaş
1.65
Ankaragücü
1.00

allows per match

Beşiktaş
1.06
Ankaragücü
1.88

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par
Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Ankaragücü →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw
78%
Beşiktaş or Ankaragücü
76%
Draw or Ankaragücü
46%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+
30%
Ankaragücü wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals
83%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
52%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
26%
Ankaragücü 1+ goals
64%
Ankaragücü 2+ goals
28%
Ankaragücü 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
71%
Ankaragücü (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.65 + Ankaragücü defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.76

Ankaragücü attack 1.00 + Beşiktaş defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Beşiktaş scores more
54%
level
24%
Ankaragücü scores more
22%

Beşiktaş at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
E. MuçiBeşiktaşBeşiktaş · M
8.5

Match Events

18'
E. Muçi↳ Gedson Fernandes
31'
Jonas Svensson
44'
T. Sanuç← E. Terzi
58'
Pedrinho← A. Güneren
67'
J. Muleka↳ M. Rashica
76'
A. Oxlade-Chamberlain← R. Ghezzal
76'
V. Aboubakar← M. Rashica
76'
T. Chatzigiovanis← O. Moruțan
76'
R. Saponara← E. Bekiroğlu
84'
Nihad Mujakić
89'
Stelios Kitsiou
90'
Tayyip Talha Sanuç
90'
M. Hekimoğlu← J. Muleka
90'
E. Tıknaz← Gedson Fernandes
90'
A. Flips← C. Bassogog
90+1'
F. Macheda← A. Sowe

Possession

44%Beşiktaş

Shots

18Beşiktaş

Pass accuracy

50%Beşiktaş

Statistics

BeşiktaşAnkaragücü
Overview
44%Possession56%
18Total Shots17
1.14Expected Goals (xG)0.72
8Corners6
12Fouls13
Shots
18Total Shots17
6On Target2
6Off Target6
6Blocked9
4Inside Box11
14Outside Box6
Passing
44%Possession56%
370Total Passes465
317Accurate Passes398
86%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Beşiktaş vs Ankaragücü

Beşiktaş beat Ankaragücü 2-0 in League #203 on April 19, 2024.

Goals: E. Muçi (18'), J. Muleka (67').

Ankaragücü controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 18.

The match was played at Tüpraş Stadyumu in İstanbul.