Ankaragücü 1–1 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats

Ankaragücü

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Beşiktaş

A. Sowe 21'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain 74'

12/3/2023

League #203 · Round 14Eryaman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ankaragücü35%

×Draw28%

Beşiktaş37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnkaragücüExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.19

Ankaragücü

1.15

Beşiktaş

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

1.13

creates per match

1.24

1.13

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Ankaragücü

1.13

Beşiktaş

1.24

allows per match

Ankaragücü

1.13

Beşiktaş

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaragücü ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ankaragücü or draw

63%

Ankaragücü or Beşiktaş

72%

Draw or Beşiktaş

65%

Winning margin

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

14%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

68%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

32%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

11%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

70%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

33%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

49%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaragücü at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaragücü attack 1.13 + Beşiktaş defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Beşiktaş attack 1.24 + Ankaragücü defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ankaragücü scores more

35%

level

28%

Beşiktaş scores more

37%

Beşiktaş at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

N. Uysal

Beşiktaş · D

7.9

Match Events

21'

A. Sowe

29'

Salih Uçan

42'

Pedrinho

55'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain← A. Hadžiahmetović

55'

C. Tosun← B. Zaynutdinov

72'

A. Rebić← V. Aboubakar

74'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain↳ N. Uysal

81'

Garry Rodrigues← E. Bekiroğlu

81'

M. Hanousek← A. Uludağ

82'

T. Chatzigiovanis← A. Güneren

86'

A. Đokanović← R. Cephas

86'

D. Amartey← S. Uçan

90+6'

Cenk Tosun

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AnkaragücüBeşiktaş

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots8

0.52Expected Goals (xG)0.39

1Corners5

19Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots8

4On Target4

4Off Target2

3Blocked2

9Inside Box6

2Outside Box2

Passing

40%Possession60%

330Total Passes486

242Accurate Passes389

73%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1