Beşiktaş U19 0–1 Ajax U19: Result & Stats

Beşiktaş U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ajax U19

A. van Axel Dongen 13' (pen)

11/24/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beşiktaş U1922%

×Draw19%

Ajax U1959%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beşiktaş U19Expected goals in this matchAjax U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

2.49

Beşiktaş U19

1.48

Ajax U19

2.49

Ajax U19 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

1.00

creates per match

2.65

2.33

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Beşiktaş U19

1.00

Ajax U19

2.65

allows per match

Beşiktaş U19

2.33

Ajax U19

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beşiktaş U19+0.00on par

Ajax U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş U19 ↓

Ajax U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Beşiktaş U19 or draw

41%

Beşiktaş U19 or Ajax U19

81%

Draw or Ajax U19

78%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş U19 wins by 2+

10%

Ajax U19 wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Beşiktaş U19 1+ goals

77%

Beşiktaş U19 2+ goals

43%

Beşiktaş U19 3+ goals

19%

Ajax U19 1+ goals

92%

Ajax U19 2+ goals

71%

Ajax U19 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Ajax U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Ajax U19 away — creates 2.65, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş U19 attack 1.00 + Ajax U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ajax U19 attack 2.65 + Beşiktaş U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Beşiktaş U19 scores more

22%

level

19%

Ajax U19 scores more

59%

Ajax U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ajax U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

B. S. Yildiz

13'

A. van Axel DongenPenalty

29'

30'

30'

46'

60'

64'

65'

E. Dall← C. Rasmussen

65'

R. Sarfo← G. Misehouy

65'

N. Chourak← O. Agougil

69'

J. Banel

69'

M. Milovanovic

76'

R. Sarfo

78'

C. van Bohemen← P. Aning

80'

S. Kılıçsoy← B. Cisse

87'

J. Banel

87'

J. Banel

90+1'

N. Bilgic

90+1'

90+1'

90+1'

90+1'

90+5'

O. Agrap

90+2'

A. Oughcha← E. Dall

Beşiktaş

Ajax

1

Setford

3

Aertssen

5

▼

Aning

2

Gooijer

8

▼

Agougil

4

Milovanov

6

Brandes

7

▼

Rasmussen

11

⚽

Dongen

10

▼

9

1

3

13

5

23

▼

10

6

17

7

▼

İlkhan

8

▼

Tıknaz

9

Yağcı

Manager: Ö. Karaveli

46'▲A. Demir←▼D. Tıknaz

64'▲H. Çiçek←▼E. İlkhan

80'▲S. Kılıçsoy←▼B. Cisse

Beşiktaş U19 substitutes

11Demir22Çiçek18Kılıçsoy19Oral15Kömeç12Baytekin2Tutar

Manager: D. Vos

65'▲E. Dall←▼C. Rasmussen

65'▲R. Sarfo←▼G. Misehouy

65'▲N. Chourak←▼O. Agougil

78'▲C. van Bohemen←▼P. Aning

90+2'▲A. Oughcha←▼E. Dall

Ajax U19 substitutes

19Dall17Sarfo16Chourak15Bohemen18Oughcha12Graaff20Kjær