Ajax U19 3–1 Beşiktaş U19: Result & Stats

Ajax U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Beşiktaş U19

G. Misehouy 78'

A. van Axel Dongen 55'

K. Hlynsson 35'

K. Yağcı 82'

9/28/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ajax U1964%

×Draw17%

Beşiktaş U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ajax U19Expected goals in this matchBeşiktaş U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

1.60

Ajax U19

2.96

Beşiktaş U19

1.60

Ajax U19 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

2.60

creates per match

1.67

1.53

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Ajax U19

2.60

Beşiktaş U19

1.67

allows per match

Ajax U19

1.53

Beşiktaş U19

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajax U19+0.00on par

Beşiktaş U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax U19 ↓

Beşiktaş U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Ajax U19 or draw

81%

Ajax U19 or Beşiktaş U19

83%

Draw or Beşiktaş U19

36%

Winning margin

Ajax U19 wins by 2+

45%

Beşiktaş U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ajax U19 1+ goals

95%

Ajax U19 2+ goals

79%

Ajax U19 3+ goals

55%

Beşiktaş U19 1+ goals

80%

Beşiktaş U19 2+ goals

47%

Beşiktaş U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Ajax U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Beşiktaş U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax U19 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Beşiktaş U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax U19 attack 2.60 + Beşiktaş U19 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.96

Beşiktaş U19 attack 1.67 + Ajax U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ajax U19 scores more

64%

level

17%

Beşiktaş U19 scores more

19%

Ajax U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ajax U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

K. Bilikli← A. Duishoev

35'

K. Hlynsson↳ A. van Axel Dongen

45'

P. Aning

46'

B. Yıldız← K. Bilikli

55'

A. van Axel Dongen↳ G. Misehouy

59'

A. Kömeç← C. Demir

60'

E. Korkmaz← H. Çiçek

63'

D. Jermoumi← R. Sarfo

63'

E. Dall← A. van Axel Dongen

76'

O. Aertssen

78'

G. Misehouy↳ P. Aning

79'

D. Jhaïr-Bobson← J. Banel

79'

82'

82'

85'

Ajax

Beşiktaş

1

14

2

3

5

17

7

▼

İlkhan

22

▼

Çiçek

9

⚽

Yağcı

11

▼

Demir

16

▼

Duishoev

1

Graaff

3

Aertssen

5

A

▼

Aning

2

Gooijer

4

Milovanov

8

⚽

Hlynsson

6

▼

Vos

7

▼

Sarfo

11

⚽A

▼

Dongen

10

⚽A

Misehouy

9

▼

Banel

Manager: D. Vos

63'▲D. Jermoumi←▼R. Sarfo

63'▲E. Dall←▼A. van Axel Dongen

79'▲D. Jhaïr-Bobson←▼J. Banel

79'▲J. Kjær←▼P. Aning

85'▲J. Brandes←▼S. Vos

Ajax U19 substitutes

16Jermoumi19Dall20Jhaïr-Bobson17Kjær18Brandes12Kremers15Bohemen

Manager: Ö. Karaveli

7'▲K. Bilikli←▼A. Duishoev

46'▲B. Yıldız←▼K. Bilikli

59'▲A. Kömeç←▼C. Demir

60'▲E. Korkmaz←▼H. Çiçek

82'▲Y. Oral←▼E. İlkhan

Beşiktaş U19 substitutes

20Bilikli13Yıldız15Kömeç24Korkmaz19Oral12Baytekin21Can

Match Recap: Ajax U19 vs Beşiktaş U19

Ajax U19 beat Beşiktaş U19 3-1 in UEFA Youth League on September 28, 2021.

Goals: K. Hlynsson (35'), A. van Axel Dongen (55'), G. Misehouy (78'), K. Yağcı (82').

The match was played at Sportpark De Toekomst in Amsterdam-Duivendrecht.

Ajax U19 vs Beşiktaş U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ajax U19 vs Beşiktaş U19