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Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Besa Kavajë — 1st Division 2019

Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
9/10/20221st Division1st Division · Round 2Stadiumi Besëlidhja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë44%
×Draw25%
Besa Kavajë31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.53
Besa Kavajë
1.25

Besëlidhja Lezhë creates 22% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 100 away

creates per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.60
Besa Kavajë
1.20

allows per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.29
Besa Kavajë
1.46

finishing

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par
Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besëlidhja Lezhë ↓

Besa Kavajë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw
69%
Besëlidhja Lezhë or Besa Kavajë
75%
Draw or Besa Kavajë
56%

Winning margin

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
22%
Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
78%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
45%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
20%
Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
71%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
36%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
58%
Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besëlidhja Lezhë at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Besa Kavajë away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 1.60 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.53

Besa Kavajë attack 1.20 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
44%
level
25%
Besa Kavajë scores more
31%

Besëlidhja Lezhë at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Besëlidhja Lezhë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Besa Kavajë

Besëlidhja Lezhë beat Besa Kavajë 2-1 in 1st Division on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Besëlidhja in Lezhë.