Besa Kavajë 2–0 Besëlidhja Lezhë: Result & Stats

Besa Kavajë

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Besëlidhja Lezhë

12/19/2021

1st Division · Round 14Stadiumi Luz i Vogël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Besa Kavajë49%

×Draw27%

Besëlidhja Lezhë24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Besa KavajëExpected goals in this matchBesëlidhja Lezhë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.94

Besa Kavajë

1.46

Besëlidhja Lezhë

0.94

Besa Kavajë creates 55% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 51 away

1.46

creates per match

0.86

1.01

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Besa Kavajë

1.46

Besëlidhja Lezhë

0.86

allows per match

Besa Kavajë

1.01

Besëlidhja Lezhë

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Kavajë ↓

Besëlidhja Lezhë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Besa Kavajë or draw

76%

Besa Kavajë or Besëlidhja Lezhë

73%

Draw or Besëlidhja Lezhë

51%

Winning margin

Besa Kavajë wins by 2+

24%

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Besa Kavajë 1+ goals

77%

Besa Kavajë 2+ goals

43%

Besa Kavajë 3+ goals

18%

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals

61%

Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals

24%

Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)

67%

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Kavajë at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.01 · 102 matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Kavajë attack 1.46 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 0.86 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Besa Kavajë scores more

49%

level

27%

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more

24%

Besa Kavajë at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Besa Kavajë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff