Besa Pejë 0–3 Arbëria: Result & Stats | Superliga

Besa Pejë

FT

0 – 3

Arbëria

2/25/2021

Superliga · Round 21Fusha e Futbollit Tahir Vokshi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Besa Pejë24%

×Draw24%

Arbëria52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Besa PejëExpected goals in this matchArbëria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.67

Besa Pejë

1.05

Arbëria

1.67

Arbëria creates 59% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

0.83

creates per match

1.22

2.11

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Besa Pejë

0.83

Arbëria

1.22

allows per match

Besa Pejë

2.11

Arbëria

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Besa Pejë+0.00on par

Arbëria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Pejë ↓

Arbëria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Besa Pejë or draw

48%

Besa Pejë or Arbëria

76%

Draw or Arbëria

76%

Winning margin

Besa Pejë wins by 2+

9%

Arbëria wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Besa Pejë 1+ goals

65%

Besa Pejë 2+ goals

28%

Besa Pejë 3+ goals

9%

Arbëria 1+ goals

81%

Arbëria 2+ goals

50%

Arbëria 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Besa Pejë (draw refunded)

32%

Arbëria (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Pejë at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Arbëria away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Pejë attack 0.83 + Arbëria defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.05

Arbëria attack 1.22 + Besa Pejë defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Besa Pejë scores more

24%

level

24%

Arbëria scores more

52%

Arbëria at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arbëria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff