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Arbëria vs Besa Pejë — Superliga 2019

Arbëria
Arbëria
FT
2 – 1
Besa Pejë
Besa Pejë
4/24/2021SuperligaSuperliga · Round 30Stadiumi Zahir Pajaziti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Arbëria51%
×Draw23%
Besa Pejë26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arbëria
1.89
Besa Pejë
1.30

Arbëria creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Arbëria
1.11
Besa Pejë
0.67

allows per match

Arbëria
1.94
Besa Pejë
2.67

finishing

Arbëria+0.00on par
Besa Pejë+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arbëria ↓

Besa Pejë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Arbëria or draw
74%
Arbëria or Besa Pejë
77%
Draw or Besa Pejë
49%

Winning margin

Arbëria wins by 2+
29%
Besa Pejë wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arbëria 1+ goals
85%
Arbëria 2+ goals
56%
Arbëria 3+ goals
29%
Besa Pejë 1+ goals
73%
Besa Pejë 2+ goals
37%
Besa Pejë 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Arbëria (draw refunded)
66%
Besa Pejë (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arbëria at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

Besa Pejë away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arbëria attack 1.11 + Besa Pejë defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.89

Besa Pejë attack 0.67 + Arbëria defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Arbëria scores more
51%
level
23%
Besa Pejë scores more
26%

Arbëria at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Arbëria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Arbëria 2–1 Besa Pejë

Arbëria beat Besa Pejë 2-1 in Superliga on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Zahir Pajaziti in Besiana, Podujevo.