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Besa Dobërdoll vs Aresimi — Second League 2019

Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
FT
1 – 0
Aresimi
Aresimi
4/23/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 25Stadion Vrapčište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Besa Dobërdoll54%
×Draw24%
Aresimi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Dobërdoll
1.71
Aresimi
0.99

Besa Dobërdoll creates 73% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Besa Dobërdoll
2.17
Aresimi
1.49

allows per match

Besa Dobërdoll
0.50
Aresimi
1.24

finishing

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par
Aresimi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Dobërdoll ↓

Aresimi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Besa Dobërdoll or draw
78%
Besa Dobërdoll or Aresimi
76%
Draw or Aresimi
46%

Winning margin

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
30%
Aresimi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
82%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
51%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
24%
Aresimi 1+ goals
63%
Aresimi 2+ goals
26%
Aresimi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
71%
Aresimi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Dobërdoll at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.50 · 30 matches

Aresimi away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Dobërdoll attack 2.17 + Aresimi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.71

Aresimi attack 1.49 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Besa Dobërdoll scores more
54%
level
24%
Aresimi scores more
22%

Besa Dobërdoll at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Besa Dobërdoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besa Dobërdoll vs Aresimi

Besa Dobërdoll beat Aresimi 1-0 in Second League on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vrapčište in Vrapchishte.