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Aresimi vs Besa Dobërdoll — Second League 2019

Aresimi
Aresimi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
10/29/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 10Stadion Chergane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Aresimi39%
×Draw27%
Besa Dobërdoll34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aresimi
1.33
Besa Dobërdoll
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Aresimi
1.84
Besa Dobërdoll
1.67

allows per match

Aresimi
0.78
Besa Dobërdoll
0.83

finishing

Aresimi+0.00on par
Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aresimi ↓

Besa Dobërdoll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Aresimi or draw
66%
Aresimi or Besa Dobërdoll
73%
Draw or Besa Dobërdoll
61%

Winning margin

Aresimi wins by 2+
18%
Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aresimi 1+ goals
74%
Aresimi 2+ goals
38%
Aresimi 3+ goals
15%
Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
71%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
35%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Aresimi (draw refunded)
53%
Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aresimi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Besa Dobërdoll away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aresimi attack 1.84 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.33

Besa Dobërdoll attack 1.67 + Aresimi defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aresimi scores more
39%
level
27%
Besa Dobërdoll scores more
34%

Aresimi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aresimi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aresimi vs Besa Dobërdoll

Aresimi beat Besa Dobërdoll 2-0 in Second League on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Chergane in Chegrane.