Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Berwick Rangers vs Annan Athletic — League Two 2018

Berwick Rangers
Berwick Rangers
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Annan Athletic
Annan Athletic
2/26/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 23Shielfield Park (Berwick-upon-Tweed, Northumberland)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Berwick Rangers24%
×Draw24%
Annan Athletic53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berwick Rangers
1.08
Annan Athletic
1.73

Annan Athletic creates 60% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 96 away

creates per match

Berwick Rangers
0.72
Annan Athletic
1.24

allows per match

Berwick Rangers
2.22
Annan Athletic
1.44

finishing

Berwick Rangers+0.00on par
Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berwick Rangers ↓

Annan Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Berwick Rangers or draw
47%
Berwick Rangers or Annan Athletic
76%
Draw or Annan Athletic
76%

Winning margin

Berwick Rangers wins by 2+
9%
Annan Athletic wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Berwick Rangers 1+ goals
66%
Berwick Rangers 2+ goals
29%
Berwick Rangers 3+ goals
10%
Annan Athletic 1+ goals
82%
Annan Athletic 2+ goals
52%
Annan Athletic 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Berwick Rangers (draw refunded)
31%
Annan Athletic (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berwick Rangers at home — creates 0.72, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Annan Athletic away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.44 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berwick Rangers attack 0.72 + Annan Athletic defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.08

Annan Athletic attack 1.24 + Berwick Rangers defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Berwick Rangers scores more
24%
level
24%
Annan Athletic scores more
53%

Annan Athletic at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Annan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berwick Rangers vs Annan Athletic

Annan Athletic beat Berwick Rangers 2-1 in League Two on February 26, 2019.

The match was played at Shielfield Park (Berwick-upon-Tweed, Northumberland).