Annan Athletic 6–0 Berwick Rangers: Result & Stats

Annan Athletic

FT

6 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Berwick Rangers

4/6/2019

League Two · Round 32Galabank (Annan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Annan Athletic64%

×Draw19%

Berwick Rangers17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annan AthleticExpected goals in this matchBerwick Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.12

Annan Athletic

2.35

Berwick Rangers

1.12

Annan Athletic creates 110% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 18 away

1.87

creates per match

0.78

1.46

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Annan Athletic

1.87

Berwick Rangers

0.78

allows per match

Annan Athletic

1.46

Berwick Rangers

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Berwick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annan Athletic ↓

Berwick Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Annan Athletic or draw

83%

Annan Athletic or Berwick Rangers

81%

Draw or Berwick Rangers

36%

Winning margin

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

42%

Berwick Rangers wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

90%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

68%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

41%

Berwick Rangers 1+ goals

67%

Berwick Rangers 2+ goals

31%

Berwick Rangers 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

79%

Berwick Rangers (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annan Athletic at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.46 · 97 matches

Berwick Rangers away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annan Athletic attack 1.87 + Berwick Rangers defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.35

Berwick Rangers attack 0.78 + Annan Athletic defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Annan Athletic scores more

64%

level

19%

Berwick Rangers scores more

17%

Annan Athletic at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Annan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff