Berwick Rangers 0–3 Albion Rovers: Result & Stats

Berwick Rangers

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Albion Rovers

G. Fotheringham 50', 24'

G. Phillips 45+3' (pen)

4/27/2019

League Two · Round 35Shielfield Park (Berwick-upon-Tweed, Northumberland)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Berwick Rangers28%

×Draw24%

Albion Rovers49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Berwick RangersExpected goals in this matchAlbion Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.73

Berwick Rangers

1.25

Albion Rovers

1.73

Albion Rovers creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 79 away

0.71

creates per match

1.18

2.29

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Berwick Rangers

0.71

Albion Rovers

1.18

allows per match

Berwick Rangers

2.29

Albion Rovers

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berwick Rangers+0.00on par

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berwick Rangers ↓

Albion Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Berwick Rangers or draw

51%

Berwick Rangers or Albion Rovers

76%

Draw or Albion Rovers

72%

Winning margin

Berwick Rangers wins by 2+

11%

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Berwick Rangers 1+ goals

71%

Berwick Rangers 2+ goals

36%

Berwick Rangers 3+ goals

13%

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

82%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

52%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Berwick Rangers (draw refunded)

36%

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berwick Rangers at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.78 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berwick Rangers attack 0.71 + Albion Rovers defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.25

Albion Rovers attack 1.18 + Berwick Rangers defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Berwick Rangers scores more

28%

level

24%

Albion Rovers scores more

49%

Albion Rovers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Albion Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

G. Fotheringham

26'

D. Healy← O. See

45+3'

G. PhillipsPenalty

50'

G. Fotheringham

55'

J. Orru← D. OKane

64'

B. Reilly← G. Newell

79'

B. Ross← G. Morena

81'

G. Rose← D. Healy

86'

J. Gordon← G. Phillips

Berwick

Albion

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Harvey

26'▲D. Healy←▼O. See

55'▲J. Orru←▼D. OKane

81'▲G. Rose←▼D. Healy

Berwick Rangers substitutes

HealyOrruRoseAloulouCarlinBrownMurphy

Manager: K. Harper

64'▲B. Reilly←▼G. Newell

79'▲B. Ross←▼G. Morena

86'▲J. Gordon←▼G. Phillips

Albion Rovers substitutes

ReillyRossGordonPottsFisherHernandoMcMahon

League Two: Berwick Rangers 0–3 Albion Rovers

Albion Rovers beat Berwick Rangers 3-0 in League Two on April 27, 2019.

Goals: G. Fotheringham (24', 50'), G. Phillips (45+3' pen).

The match was played at Shielfield Park (Berwick-upon-Tweed, Northumberland).

Berwick Rangers vs Albion Rovers — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Two: Berwick Rangers 0–3 Albion Rovers