Albion Rovers 3–5 Berwick Rangers: Result & Stats

Albion Rovers

FT

3 – 5

HT: 2 – 2

Berwick Rangers

G. Gracie 50'

L. McLear 38'

A. Murdoch 3'

C. Scott 86', 60'

D. Healy 78'

P. Willis 25' (pen)

G. Phillips 13'

9/1/2018

League Two · Round 5The Reigart Stadium (Coatbridge)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Albion Rovers55%

×Draw22%

Berwick Rangers23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albion RoversExpected goals in this matchBerwick Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.19

Albion Rovers

1.94

Berwick Rangers

1.19

Albion Rovers creates 63% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 18 away

1.05

creates per match

0.78

1.60

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Albion Rovers

1.05

Berwick Rangers

0.78

allows per match

Albion Rovers

1.60

Berwick Rangers

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Berwick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Rovers ↓

Berwick Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Albion Rovers or draw

77%

Albion Rovers or Berwick Rangers

78%

Draw or Berwick Rangers

45%

Winning margin

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

32%

Berwick Rangers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

86%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

58%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

30%

Berwick Rangers 1+ goals

70%

Berwick Rangers 2+ goals

33%

Berwick Rangers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

70%

Berwick Rangers (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion Rovers at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.60 · 78 matches

Berwick Rangers away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion Rovers attack 1.05 + Berwick Rangers defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.94

Berwick Rangers attack 0.78 + Albion Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Albion Rovers scores more

55%

level

22%

Berwick Rangers scores more

23%

Albion Rovers at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Albion Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

A. Murdoch

13'

G. Phillips

25'

P. WillisPenalty

38'

50'

59'

60'

68'

R. Kearney← L. Wilson

77'

J. Cunningham← J. Watson

78'

D. Healy

82'

O. Fleming← P. Willis

83'

M. Greene← G. Gracie

86'

C. Scott

Albion

Berwick

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Gracie

Manager: J. Brogan

68'▲R. Kearney←▼L. Wilson

77'▲J. Cunningham←▼J. Watson

83'▲M. Greene←▼G. Gracie

Albion Rovers substitutes

KearneyCunninghamGreeneWylieGallagherMcMahon

Manager: R. Horn

59'▲C. Scott←▼J. Neill

82'▲O. Fleming←▼P. Willis

Berwick Rangers substitutes

ScottFlemingBrennanMurrellRoseOgilvie

League Two: Albion Rovers 3–5 Berwick Rangers

Berwick Rangers beat Albion Rovers 5-3 in League Two on September 1, 2018.

Goals: A. Murdoch (3'), G. Phillips (13'), P. Willis (25' pen), L. McLear (38'), G. Gracie (50'), C. Scott (60', 86'), D. Healy (78').

The match was played at The Reigart Stadium (Coatbridge).

Albion Rovers vs Berwick Rangers — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Two: Albion Rovers 3–5 Berwick Rangers