Bersenbrück 3–1 Atlas Delmenhorst: Result & Stats

Bersenbrück

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atlas Delmenhorst

3/20/2024

League #748 · Niedersachsen - 21Hasestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bersenbrück51%

×Draw25%

Atlas Delmenhorst24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BersenbrückExpected goals in this matchAtlas Delmenhorst

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.00

Bersenbrück

1.60

Atlas Delmenhorst

1.00

Bersenbrück creates 60% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.20

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Bersenbrück

2.20

Atlas Delmenhorst

1.00

allows per match

Bersenbrück

1.00

Atlas Delmenhorst

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bersenbrück+0.00on par

Atlas Delmenhorst+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bersenbrück ↓

Atlas Delmenhorst →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bersenbrück or draw

76%

Bersenbrück or Atlas Delmenhorst

75%

Draw or Atlas Delmenhorst

49%

Winning margin

Bersenbrück wins by 2+

27%

Atlas Delmenhorst wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bersenbrück 1+ goals

80%

Bersenbrück 2+ goals

47%

Bersenbrück 3+ goals

22%

Atlas Delmenhorst 1+ goals

63%

Atlas Delmenhorst 2+ goals

26%

Atlas Delmenhorst 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bersenbrück (draw refunded)

68%

Atlas Delmenhorst (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bersenbrück at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Atlas Delmenhorst away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bersenbrück attack 2.20 + Atlas Delmenhorst defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Atlas Delmenhorst attack 1.00 + Bersenbrück defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bersenbrück scores more

51%

level

25%

Atlas Delmenhorst scores more

24%

Bersenbrück at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bersenbrück will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff