Atlas Delmenhorst 1–1 Bersenbrück: Result & Stats

Atlas Delmenhorst

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bersenbrück

S. Rohwedder 49'

M. Luhrmann 30'

4/6/2025

League #748 · Niedersachsen - 29Stadion an der Düsternortstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Atlas Delmenhorst40%

×Draw22%

Bersenbrück39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlas DelmenhorstExpected goals in this matchBersenbrück

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.85

Atlas Delmenhorst

1.88

Bersenbrück

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.75

creates per match

2.20

1.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Atlas Delmenhorst

1.75

Bersenbrück

2.20

allows per match

Atlas Delmenhorst

1.50

Bersenbrück

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlas Delmenhorst+0.00on par

Bersenbrück+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas Delmenhorst ↓

Bersenbrück →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Atlas Delmenhorst or draw

61%

Atlas Delmenhorst or Bersenbrück

78%

Draw or Bersenbrück

60%

Winning margin

Atlas Delmenhorst wins by 2+

21%

Bersenbrück wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Atlas Delmenhorst 1+ goals

85%

Atlas Delmenhorst 2+ goals

56%

Atlas Delmenhorst 3+ goals

29%

Bersenbrück 1+ goals

84%

Bersenbrück 2+ goals

55%

Bersenbrück 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Atlas Delmenhorst (draw refunded)

51%

Bersenbrück (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas Delmenhorst at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Bersenbrück away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas Delmenhorst attack 1.75 + Bersenbrück defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Bersenbrück attack 2.20 + Atlas Delmenhorst defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlas Delmenhorst scores more

40%

level

22%

Bersenbrück scores more

39%

Atlas Delmenhorst at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlas Delmenhorst will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

M. Luhrmann

49'

S. Rohwedder

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff