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Bergisch Gladbach vs Alfter — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Bergisch Gladbach
Bergisch Gladbach
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Alfter
Alfter
5/22/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 31BELKAW-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bergisch Gladbach55%
×Draw21%
Alfter24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergisch Gladbach
2.13
Alfter
1.37

Bergisch Gladbach creates 55% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bergisch Gladbach
2.52
Alfter
1.58

allows per match

Bergisch Gladbach
1.16
Alfter
1.74

finishing

Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par
Alfter+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergisch Gladbach ↓

Alfter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bergisch Gladbach or draw
76%
Bergisch Gladbach or Alfter
79%
Draw or Alfter
45%

Winning margin

Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+
33%
Alfter wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals
88%
Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals
63%
Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals
35%
Alfter 1+ goals
75%
Alfter 2+ goals
40%
Alfter 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)
69%
Alfter (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergisch Gladbach at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

Alfter away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergisch Gladbach attack 2.52 + Alfter defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.13

Alfter attack 1.58 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bergisch Gladbach scores more
55%
level
21%
Alfter scores more
24%

Bergisch Gladbach at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bergisch Gladbach vs Alfter

Bergisch Gladbach beat Alfter 3-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at BELKAW-Arena in Bergisch Gladbach.