Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alfter vs Bergisch Gladbach — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Alfter
Alfter
FT
0 – 5
Bergisch Gladbach
Bergisch Gladbach
11/7/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 14Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Alfter31%
×Draw23%
Bergisch Gladbach45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfter
1.41
Bergisch Gladbach
1.73

Bergisch Gladbach creates 23% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 76 away

creates per match

Alfter
1.68
Bergisch Gladbach
1.92

allows per match

Alfter
1.55
Bergisch Gladbach
1.14

finishing

Alfter+0.00on par
Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfter ↓

Bergisch Gladbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Alfter or draw
55%
Alfter or Bergisch Gladbach
77%
Draw or Bergisch Gladbach
69%

Winning margin

Alfter wins by 2+
14%
Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Alfter 1+ goals
76%
Alfter 2+ goals
41%
Alfter 3+ goals
17%
Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals
82%
Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals
52%
Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Alfter (draw refunded)
41%
Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfter at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

Bergisch Gladbach away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.14 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfter attack 1.68 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bergisch Gladbach attack 1.92 + Alfter defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alfter scores more
31%
level
23%
Bergisch Gladbach scores more
45%

Bergisch Gladbach at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alfter vs Bergisch Gladbach

Bergisch Gladbach beat Alfter 5-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Alfter.