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Berga vs Asarum — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Berga
Berga
FT
2 – 2
Asarum
Asarum
8/28/2021Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Östra Götaland - 22Bergavik IP A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Berga52%
×Draw22%
Asarum27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berga
1.98
Asarum
1.37

Berga creates 45% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 47 away

creates per match

Berga
1.78
Asarum
1.51

allows per match

Berga
1.23
Asarum
2.17

finishing

Berga+0.00on par
Asarum+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berga ↓

Asarum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Berga or draw
73%
Berga or Asarum
78%
Draw or Asarum
48%

Winning margin

Berga wins by 2+
30%
Asarum wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Berga 1+ goals
86%
Berga 2+ goals
59%
Berga 3+ goals
31%
Asarum 1+ goals
75%
Asarum 2+ goals
40%
Asarum 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Berga (draw refunded)
66%
Asarum (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berga at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.23 · 74 matches

Asarum away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.17 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berga attack 1.78 + Asarum defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

Asarum attack 1.51 + Berga defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Berga scores more
52%
level
22%
Asarum scores more
27%

Berga at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Berga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Berga 2–2 Asarum

Berga and Asarum drew 2-2 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Bergavik IP A in Kalmar.