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Asarum vs Berga — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Asarum
Asarum
FT
1 – 4
Berga
Berga
11/6/2021Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Östra Götaland - 6Asarums IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Asarum33%
×Draw23%
Berga44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asarum
1.55
Berga
1.82

Berga creates 17% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 73 away

creates per match

Asarum
1.48
Berga
1.47

allows per match

Asarum
2.17
Berga
1.62

finishing

Asarum+0.00on par
Berga+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asarum ↓

Berga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Asarum or draw
56%
Asarum or Berga
77%
Draw or Berga
67%

Winning margin

Asarum wins by 2+
16%
Berga wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Asarum 1+ goals
79%
Asarum 2+ goals
46%
Asarum 3+ goals
20%
Berga 1+ goals
84%
Berga 2+ goals
54%
Berga 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Asarum (draw refunded)
43%
Berga (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asarum at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

Berga away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.62 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asarum attack 1.48 + Berga defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.55

Berga attack 1.47 + Asarum defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Asarum scores more
33%
level
23%
Berga scores more
44%

Berga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Berga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Asarum 1–4 Berga

Berga beat Asarum 4-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Asarums IP in Asarum.