Berekum Chelsea 1–0 Bechem United: Result & Stats

Berekum Chelsea

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bechem United

3/29/2025

Cup · Quarter-finalsBaba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Berekum Chelsea66%

×Draw22%

Bechem United12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Berekum ChelseaExpected goals in this matchBechem United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.63

Berekum Chelsea

1.83

Bechem United

0.63

Berekum Chelsea creates 190% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

3.00

creates per match

1.00

0.25

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Berekum Chelsea

3.00

Bechem United

1.00

allows per match

Berekum Chelsea

0.25

Bechem United

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Bechem United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Chelsea ↓

Bechem United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Berekum Chelsea or draw

88%

Berekum Chelsea or Bechem United

78%

Draw or Bechem United

34%

Winning margin

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+

40%

Bechem United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals

84%

Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals

54%

Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals

28%

Bechem United 1+ goals

47%

Bechem United 2+ goals

13%

Bechem United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)

84%

Bechem United (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Chelsea at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Bechem United away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Chelsea attack 3.00 + Bechem United defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Bechem United attack 1.00 + Berekum Chelsea defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Berekum Chelsea scores more

66%

level

22%

Bechem United scores more

12%

Berekum Chelsea at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Berekum Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff