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Berekum Chelsea vs Accra Lions — Premier League 2019

Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Accra Lions
Accra Lions
3/9/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Berekum Chelsea58%
×Draw27%
Accra Lions15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berekum Chelsea
1.45
Accra Lions
0.58

Berekum Chelsea creates 150% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 67 away

creates per match

Berekum Chelsea
1.32
Accra Lions
0.58

allows per match

Berekum Chelsea
0.58
Accra Lions
1.57

finishing

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par
Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Chelsea ↓

Accra Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Berekum Chelsea or draw
85%
Berekum Chelsea or Accra Lions
73%
Draw or Accra Lions
42%

Winning margin

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
30%
Accra Lions wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
77%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
42%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
18%
Accra Lions 1+ goals
44%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
12%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
80%
Accra Lions (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Chelsea at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.58 · 110 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.57 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Chelsea attack 1.32 + Accra Lions defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Accra Lions attack 0.58 + Berekum Chelsea defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Berekum Chelsea scores more
58%
level
27%
Accra Lions scores more
15%

Berekum Chelsea at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Berekum Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berekum Chelsea vs Accra Lions

Berekum Chelsea beat Accra Lions 3-1 in Premier League on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Agyeman Badu Stadium in Dormaa Ahenkro.