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Accra Lions vs Berekum Chelsea — Premier League 2019

Accra Lions
Accra Lions
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
3/9/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Accra Lions53%
×Draw27%
Berekum Chelsea20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accra Lions
1.45
Berekum Chelsea
0.78

Accra Lions creates 86% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 108 away

creates per match

Accra Lions
1.32
Berekum Chelsea
0.73

allows per match

Accra Lions
0.84
Berekum Chelsea
1.57

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par
Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

Berekum Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw
80%
Accra Lions or Berekum Chelsea
73%
Draw or Berekum Chelsea
47%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+
27%
Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals
77%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
42%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
18%
Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
54%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
18%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)
72%
Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Berekum Chelsea away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.32 + Berekum Chelsea defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Berekum Chelsea attack 0.73 + Accra Lions defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Accra Lions scores more
53%
level
27%
Berekum Chelsea scores more
20%

Accra Lions at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Accra Lions 5 – 0 Berekum Chelsea

Accra Lions beat Berekum Chelsea 5-0 in Premier League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.