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Bengaluru vs Mumbai City — Indian Super League 2025

Bengaluru
Bengaluru
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mumbai City
Mumbai City
4/25/2026Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 10Sree Kanteerava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bengaluru24%
×Draw29%
Mumbai City47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bengaluru
0.83
Mumbai City
1.27

Mumbai City creates 53% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Bengaluru
1.10
Mumbai City
1.44

allows per match

Bengaluru
1.10
Mumbai City
0.56

finishing

Bengaluru+0.00on par
Mumbai City+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bengaluru ↓

Mumbai City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bengaluru or draw
53%
Bengaluru or Mumbai City
71%
Draw or Mumbai City
76%

Winning margin

Bengaluru wins by 2+
8%
Mumbai City wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Bengaluru 1+ goals
56%
Bengaluru 2+ goals
20%
Bengaluru 3+ goals
5%
Mumbai City 1+ goals
72%
Mumbai City 2+ goals
36%
Mumbai City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bengaluru (draw refunded)
34%
Mumbai City (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bengaluru at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bengaluru attack 1.10 + Mumbai City defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.83

Mumbai City attack 1.44 + Bengaluru defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bengaluru scores more
24%
level
29%
Mumbai City scores more
47%

Mumbai City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
R. BhekeBengaluruBengaluru · D
7.9

Match Events

54'
N. Bhutia← N. Poojari
61'
S. Varshneya← R. Williams
67'
G. Nikum← P. Noufal
67'
B. Lalnuntluanga← B. Fernandes
88'
S. Singh← L. Fanai
88'
S. S. Narayanan← S. Chhetri
90+1'
Lalnuntluanga Bawitlung

Possession

66%Bengaluru

Shots

10Bengaluru

Pass accuracy

54%Bengaluru

Statistics

BengaluruMumbai
Overview
66%Possession34%
10Total Shots11
0.42Expected Goals (xG)0.72
7Corners1
8Fouls10
Shots
10Total Shots11
0On Target3
9Off Target6
1Blocked2
6Inside Box4
4Outside Box7
Passing
66%Possession34%
512Total Passes270
444Accurate Passes198
87%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
8Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Bengaluru vs Mumbai City

Bengaluru and Mumbai City drew 0-0 in Indian Super League on April 25, 2026.

Bengaluru controlled possession (66%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Sree Kanteerava Stadium in Bangalore.