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Bengaluru vs Mumbai City — Indian Super League 2025

Bengaluru
Bengaluru
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mumbai City
Mumbai City
J. Pereyra Díaz 83'
S. Chhetri 76'
R. Williams 62'
Édgar Méndez 42' (pen)
S. Singh 9'
3/29/2025Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Qualifying FinalsSree Kanteerava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bengaluru38%
×Draw28%
Mumbai City34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bengaluru
1.25
Mumbai City
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 24 away

creates per match

Bengaluru
1.43
Mumbai City
1.38

allows per match

Bengaluru
0.93
Mumbai City
1.08

finishing

Bengaluru+0.00on par
Mumbai City+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bengaluru ↓

Mumbai City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bengaluru or draw
66%
Bengaluru or Mumbai City
72%
Draw or Mumbai City
62%

Winning margin

Bengaluru wins by 2+
17%
Mumbai City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bengaluru 1+ goals
71%
Bengaluru 2+ goals
36%
Bengaluru 3+ goals
13%
Mumbai City 1+ goals
69%
Mumbai City 2+ goals
32%
Mumbai City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bengaluru (draw refunded)
53%
Mumbai City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bengaluru at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bengaluru attack 1.43 + Mumbai City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mumbai City attack 1.38 + Bengaluru defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bengaluru scores more
38%
level
28%
Mumbai City scores more
34%

Bengaluru at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bengaluru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
S. SinghBengaluruBengaluru · M
8.2

Match Events

9'
S. Singh
30'
Yoëll van Nieff
41'
Mehtab Singh
42'
Édgar MéndezPenalty
45'
Brandon Fernandes
55'
Roshan Singh
56'
S. Chhetri← V. Venkatesh
62'
R. Williams↳ S. Singh
65'
J. Pereyra Díaz← Édgar Méndez
65'
L. Fanai← S. Singh
65'
S. Panwar← L. Chhangte
65'
Jon Toral← Y. van Nieff
74'
B. Singh← N. Karelis
76'
S. Chhetri↳ J. Pereyra Díaz
78'
A. Chhikara← Jorge Ortíz
79'
J. Rane← B. Fernandes
82'
M. Salah← R. Singh
82'
A. Jovanović← Pedro Capó
83'
J. Pereyra Díaz↳ Alberto Noguera
85'
Jorge Pereyra Díaz

Possession

41%Bengaluru

Shots

13Bengaluru

Pass accuracy

48%Bengaluru

Statistics

BengaluruMumbai
Overview
41%Possession59%
13Total Shots15
4Corners5
13Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots15
6On Target4
3Off Target7
4Blocked4
7Inside Box5
6Outside Box10
Passing
41%Possession59%
322Total Passes459
256Accurate Passes398
80%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls10
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Bengaluru vs Mumbai City

Bengaluru beat Mumbai City 5-0 in Indian Super League on March 29, 2025.

Goals: S. Singh (9'), Édgar Méndez (42' pen), R. Williams (62'), S. Chhetri (76'), J. Pereyra Díaz (83').

Mumbai City controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Sree Kanteerava Stadium in Bangalore.