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Bengaluru vs ATK Mohun Bagan — Indian Super League 2019

Bengaluru
Bengaluru
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
ATK Mohun Bagan
ATK Mohun Bagan
9/28/2024Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 3Sree Kanteerava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Bengaluru35%
×Draw27%
ATK Mohun Bagan38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bengaluru
1.23
ATK Mohun Bagan
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 63 away

creates per match

Bengaluru
1.46
ATK Mohun Bagan
1.54

allows per match

Bengaluru
1.06
ATK Mohun Bagan
1.00

finishing

Bengaluru+0.00on par
ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bengaluru ↓

ATK Mohun Bagan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bengaluru or draw
62%
Bengaluru or ATK Mohun Bagan
73%
Draw or ATK Mohun Bagan
65%

Winning margin

Bengaluru wins by 2+
15%
ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bengaluru 1+ goals
71%
Bengaluru 2+ goals
35%
Bengaluru 3+ goals
13%
ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
73%
ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
37%
ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bengaluru (draw refunded)
48%
ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bengaluru at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.06 · 71 matches

ATK Mohun Bagan away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bengaluru attack 1.46 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 1.54 + Bengaluru defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bengaluru scores more
35%
level
27%
ATK Mohun Bagan scores more
38%

ATK Mohun Bagan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "ATK Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bengaluru vs ATK Mohun Bagan

Bengaluru beat ATK Mohun Bagan 3-0 in Indian Super League on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Sree Kanteerava Stadium in Bangalore.